The growing U.S.-Canada trade dispute could affect Buckeye.
Local golf courses, restaurants, retailers, real estate agents, and home-service companies benefit from Canadian winter visitors.
The dispute escalated Tuesday. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said President Donald Trump banned certain Canadian motor vehicles, dairy products, and alcohol.
He also directed federal officials to remove $50 billion in Canadian-origin products from government purchasing schedules.
U.S. officials called the actions a response to Canadian trade restrictions and retaliatory tariffs.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney offered a different account. He said Aug. 21 that Canada would match new U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar.
Canadian travel remains down
Preliminary state tourism data show Canadian visits to Arizona fell 22% in 2025, to about 664,000.
That was approximately 188,000 fewer visitors than in 2024.
The decline reflected a broader national shift. Statistics Canada reported 25.4% fewer Canadian return border crossings from the United States in 2025.
Canadian spending on U.S. trips fell by C$3.3 billion, from C$22.1 billion to C$18.8 billion. Leisure travel accounted for much of the decline.
June 2026 figures improved compared with last year’s depressed totals. However, Canadian return trips remained 28.7% below June 2024. Air travel remained 25% below its June 2024 level.
Buckeye’s winter economy
InBuckeye found no public count of Canadian visitors specifically staying in Buckeye. That makes the local impact difficult to measure.
Still, Buckeye markets itself as a golf and outdoor destination. The city promotes Copper Canyon, Sundance, two Verrado golf courses, and Skyline Regional Park.
Fewer seasonal residents could reduce spending at restaurants, stores, medical offices, home-service businesses, and recreational attractions.
The effect has already appeared in national reporting about Buckeye.
Reuters reported in April 2025 that an Alberta couple sold a Buckeye vacation home they had owned for five years. They typically spent four to five months annually in Arizona.
One sale does not establish a citywide trend. It does provide a local example of the broader Canadian pullback.
Trade adds uncertainty
Tourism is only part of Arizona’s relationship with Canada.
Arizona exported $2.8 billion in goods to Canada during 2025 and imported the same amount. That created $5.6 billion in two-way trade, according to the Arizona Commerce Authority.
Canada is Arizona’s third-largest merchandise export market. More than 250 Canadian-owned companies have Arizona locations, according to Global Affairs Canada.
InBuckeye found no public breakdown of Buckeye’s share of that trade. However, continued tariffs could affect regional prices, supply chains, investment, and consumer spending.
New flights could help
Canadian air service to Phoenix is scheduled to expand this winter.
Porter Airlines plans daily service between Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and Edmonton beginning Nov. 6.
Daily Calgary service is scheduled to begin Dec. 20. Porter also plans a second daily Toronto flight and the return of daily Vancouver service in December.
More airline seats could help restore Canadian travel. However, they do not guarantee more visitors.
Travelers must still choose Arizona over destinations in Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and elsewhere.
Winter will provide a test
The approaching winter season should provide clearer evidence of the local impact.
Golf activity, restaurant traffic, retail sales, hotel stays, and vacation-home listings will offer important signals.
New flights could support a rebound. Continued trade tensions could suppress demand.
For Buckeye, the question is how much of that economic push and pull will reach the West Valley.
