Despite metro Phoenix gaining nearly a quarter-million residents last year, shifting demographics and declining birth rates have introduced significant challenges for school districts. Since 2007, the local birth rate has plummeted by 36% — the second-largest drop in the nation — contributing to stagnating growth and dwindling enrollment across the Valley.
Over the past two years, Arizona’s public schools have lost 20,000 students, according to recent reports. Cities such as Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa, Tempe, and Paradise Valley have seen sharp declines in their youth populations, with Phoenix alone losing 34,000 residents under age 20 since 2018. Even Casa Grande recorded a loss of 1,400 in this age group, according to a December analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
Buckeye, however, is bucking the trend.
The city leads Maricopa and Pinal counties in both raw growth and proportional increases among residents under 20. Since 2018, Buckeye has added 8,700 people in this age group — a 7.3% increase, the highest rate in the region. These figures surpass rapidly growing cities like Maricopa, which saw a 6.5% rise (4,600 residents), and Gilbert, which added 8,100 under 20.
This surge is fueling significant expansion in Buckeye’s school system. New elementary and charter schools have opened in recent years, and a high school under construction underscores the district’s efforts to keep pace with growth. The Buckeye Union High School District and its feeder schools are bracing for enrollment to continue climbing, with projections indicating exponential growth over the next decade.
At the same time, Buckeye schools are adapting to the impacts of Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Account program, which allows families to direct public funds toward private or home-schooling options. While the program has strained some districts, Buckeye’s booming population has helped mitigate funding losses, enabling its schools to remain financially stable and well-positioned for the future.
As young families continue to move to Buckeye, the city is emerging as a model of resilience and opportunity in Arizona’s evolving educational landscape. With infrastructure expansion and a focus on innovative solutions, Buckeye schools are poised to thrive as the state grapples with shifting demographic and economic realities.
