What should Arizonans expect from the 2026 monsoon?
Arizona could see more rain than usual during the 2026 monsoon, although forecasters still expect above-average temperatures across the state.
The National Weather Service gives nearly all of Arizona a 33% to 50% chance of receiving above-normal precipitation from July through September. Northeastern Arizona has the strongest chance of a wetter season.
However, seasonal forecasts show broad weather patterns. They cannot predict when storms will form or which communities will receive the most rain.
What the outlook means for Buckeye
Buckeye and the West Valley could see more opportunities for thunderstorms, particularly during August and September.
Still, monsoon storms rarely spread rain evenly across the Valley. One Buckeye neighborhood could receive heavy rain, strong winds, and lightning, while another neighborhood a few miles away remains dry.
Phoenix normally records 2.43 inches of rain during the monsoon, based on averages from 1991 through 2020. Meanwhile, western Arizona generally receives less monsoon rain than central and eastern parts of the state.
El Niño could strengthen late-season moisture
A developing El Niño could also influence Arizona’s monsoon.
El Niño occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This year, those warmer waters could increase tropical storm activity in the eastern Pacific.
As a result, tropical moisture may move into Arizona more frequently during August and September. That could produce periods of widespread rain and increase the risk of flash flooding.
Even during a wetter monsoon, Arizona can experience long stretches without rain. Therefore, residents should still expect extreme heat and dry conditions between storms.
In addition, above-average rainfall does not necessarily mean slow, steady rain. Arizona may reach its seasonal total through a few intense storms that drop large amounts of rain in a short period.
Those storms can quickly flood washes, streets, and low-lying areas.
Safety Tips for Monsoon Season
Monsoon season can be beautiful, but it also brings hazards. Here are some safety tips to keep in mind:
- Stay Informed:
- Sign up for weather alerts and watch local news reports for storm updates.
- Use weather apps to track storm patterns and receive real-time alerts.
- Prepare Your Home:
- Ensure your roof is in good condition to handle heavy rain.
- Trim trees and shrubs to prevent branches from breaking off during strong winds.
- Secure outdoor furniture and other items that could become projectiles in high winds.
- Driving Safety:
- Avoid driving during heavy storms. If you must drive, reduce your speed and increase your following distance.
- Never drive through flooded roadways. Turn around, don’t drown.
- Be cautious of low visibility during haboobs. If you encounter one, pull over to the side of the road, turn off your lights, and keep your foot off the brake pedal.
- Flood Safety:
- Know the flood risk in your area and have an evacuation plan.
- Avoid walking or driving through floodwaters. It only takes six inches of fast-moving water to knock you off your feet.
- Keep important documents and valuables in a waterproof container.
- Outdoor Activities:
- Plan outdoor activities during the early part of the day to avoid afternoon storms.
- If you hear thunder or see lightning, seek shelter immediately. Wait at least 30 minutes after the last thunderclap before resuming activities.
- Stay away from open fields, tall trees, and bodies of water during storms.
By taking these precautions, you can enjoy the benefits of monsoon season while staying safe. Monsoon season in Arizona is a unique and dramatic part of the year, offering both relief from the heat and challenges from the weather. Stay informed and prepared to make the most of this vibrant season
Remember the safety slogan: Turn Around - Don't Drown! By staying informed and taking these precautions, you can ensure your safety!
Sources: National Weather Service 2026 Arizona Monsoon Outlook and NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
